Analysis date: 19 October 2026
For two decades the Gulf hubs have been the default way to connect Europe with Asia. In 2026 that model is being tested twice. Middle East passenger traffic fell 14.6% year on year in August, according to IATA, undoing months of recovery and pulling world traffic down 0.8%. Then, between 6 and 11 October, attacks claimed by the Houthis hit Riyadh, Abha and Dammam airports. The passengers have not disappeared. They are taking a detour, and some of that detour may become permanent.
The recovery that went into reverse
IATA dates the conflict to the end of February. In March, Middle East traffic collapsed by 58.6% as airspace closed and airlines parked aircraft. The rebuild that followed was steady: −46.6% in April, −28.4% in May, −13.9% in June and −10.0% in July. At that pace the region was heading back towards 2025 levels by the end of the year.
August broke the trend. Demand fell 14.6% while capacity fell only 9.3%, so the region’s load factor dropped 4.9 points to 78.9%, the lowest of any region and more than six points below the world average of 85.1%. IATA described the recovery as interrupted, and its chief economist, Marie Owens Thomsen, pointed to energy prices squeezing travellers’ spending and to geopolitical risk deterring travel.
The effect reaches well beyond the region. Middle Eastern carriers account for less than a tenth of world traffic, yet excluding them IATA’s August figure turns from −0.8% to +0.6%. World traffic has now fallen in four of the last five months. One region is deciding whether the global market grows or shrinks.
From airspace to airports
Until October, the risk was mainly about airspace that airlines could route around. The attacks moved it to the hubs themselves. On 8 October a strike damaged a parked Saudia aircraft, and Saudi authorities said an airline captain was killed; Cirium data show 293 of Riyadh’s 747 scheduled movements that day, 39%, did not operate. Further attacks on 10 and 11 October, including a projectile that hit Terminal 4, closed King Khalid International until 17 October. Dammam’s King Fahd airport was also reported attacked.
Riyadh reopened on 18 October, but reopening an airport is not the same as restoring a network. Airlines have already moved the aircraft and crews elsewhere, and many have pushed their return well into the winter schedule season.
Short suspensions are an operating problem. Suspensions that run into December and beyond are a commercial one: when Lufthansa, Philippine Airlines and Cathay Pacific stay away for one to three months, the seats, the corporate contracts and the connecting passengers go with them.
Where the passengers went
The clearest winner is direct flying between Europe and Asia. In every monthly release since March, IATA has named Europe–Asia as the fastest-growing major international corridor and linked it to direct services replacing journeys that used to connect in the Middle East. In August, European carriers’ Europe–Asia traffic grew 12.2% while Middle East–Asia traffic fell 11.7%. European airlines grew international traffic 2.1% overall even as their transatlantic traffic fell 2.4%: Asia made up the difference. Third-quarter results from Lufthansa Group and Air France-KLM should show whether that traffic is profitable.
Istanbul is the main connecting alternative outside the conflict zone. Turkish Airlines, including AJet, carried 9 million passengers in September at an 86.8% load factor and 73 million in the first nine months, up 5.2%. Its capacity grew a measured 2.5% in September, so the shift is visible rather than dramatic, but its order for 100 737 MAX aircraft the same month shows it expects the demand to last.
Flows that never needed the Gulf are still growing: Asia–North America traffic rose 2.5% in August and China’s domestic market 5.8%. The weakness is concentrated in journeys that depend on Middle East transit or on the region as a destination. Dubai Airports, which handled 31.5 million passengers in the first half, down 31.3%, shows both the scale of the damage and the hubs’ capacity to rebuild.
Saudi Arabia’s hub plan meets its hardest test
Saudi Arabia is targeting 330 million airline passengers a year by 2030, with a two-hub strategy built around Saudia in Jeddah and Riyadh Air in the capital. The attacks hit the capital’s hub during the start-up airline’s first months. Riyadh Air began selling tickets in June, had eight Boeing 787-9s by October, and plans 72 Dreamliners and more than 100 destinations by 2030. On 13 October it flew several of its new aircraft out of Riyadh to AlUla, Medina and Jeddah. Protecting the fleet was the right call, but it is a hard message for an airline whose proposition is its hub.
The region’s airlines face this from a weaker financial position than their rivals. IATA’s June outlook already expected them to swing from a $7.2 billion profit to a $4.3 billion loss in 2026, while Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific all stayed profitable. That forecast predates both the August reversal and the October attacks. Carrier-level results are tracked on our Emirates and Qatar Airways profiles.
Diverted traffic is not cheap traffic
The airlines gaining passengers are paying to carry them. IBA estimated that detours around restricted airspace lengthened the average Europe–Asia flight from 9 hours before the conflict to 9 hours 47 minutes in June. Saudi airspace has been one of the main ways around Iran and Iraq, so the new restrictions there, reported by FlightGlobal on 16 October, press on the very corridor absorbing the diverted traffic.
Every extra minute is flown at the most expensive fuel in years. IATA expects jet fuel to average $152 a barrel in 2026, almost 70% above 2025’s $90, with the refining margin on top of crude at a record $57. Longer flights also consume crew duty time and aircraft hours. That is why the shift has not made European airlines rich: IATA still expects their net margin to fall from 4.5% to 3.1% this year. We set out the arithmetic of a detour in our analysis of EASA’s Middle East escalation, and the unit economics behind it in what makes an airline profitable.
Three ways this could play out
The Gulf carriers have rebuilt from worse: traffic was down 58.6% in March and only 10% in July. What matters now is how long the second shock lasts. These are illustrative scenarios, not forecasts.
- A short shock. No further attacks, suspensions end on their announced dates, and September and October data show the August dip was temporary. The Gulf hubs return to the recovery path they were on in July, and the Europe–Asia boom slows.
- A long detour. Suspensions keep being extended through the winter and airspace guidance tightens. Middle East traffic stays well below 2025, Europe–Asia keeps growing at double digits, and Istanbul and European hubs take a larger share of connecting traffic.
- A lasting reroute. Even after the region stabilises, airlines keep the direct routes and corporate contracts they built in 2026. The Gulf hubs recover volume, but at lower yields, as they have to win back passengers who have learned to travel without them.
What to watch next
- IATA’s September data, expected at the end of October. It will show whether the reversal deepened before the attacks; October’s data, due in late November, will be the first to include them.
- Resumption dates. Whether Air France (24 October), KLM (31 October) and Lufthansa (18 November) return on time, and when Qatar Airways names a date.
- EASA’s Saudi bulletin. The current version, issued on 30 September, runs to 16 November; any extension or widening would affect Europe–Asia routings directly.
- Riyadh Air’s schedule. Whether its aircraft return to Riyadh and whether network launches slip.
Which scenario do you think is most likely? Share your view in the discussion below. To follow the numbers as they land, create a free account for results alerts on Emirates, Qatar Airways, Turkish Airlines and the other carriers in our airline comparison tool.
Methodology
Traffic figures are revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) from IATA’s monthly air passenger releases, checked on 19 October 2026, on IATA’s total-market basis unless stated as carrier-based. IATA reports the Europe–Asia corridor on slightly different bases from month to month, as shown in the tables below. All IATA figures are provisional. The event timeline and airline resumption dates are taken from the reports cited and reflect information available on 18–19 October 2026; casualty figures differ between reports and are not totalled. The scenarios are illustrative and are not forecasts. This article does not assess security conditions or give travel advice.
Primary sources
- IATA, Air passenger demand slips 0.8% in August (30 September 2026)
- IATA monthly passenger releases for February, March, April, May, June and July 2026
- IATA, June 2026 airline industry outlook (7 June 2026)
- EASA, Conflict Zone Information Bulletin CZIB-2026-09, Saudi Arabia (30 September 2026)
- The National, Riyadh airport reopens: which airlines are still cancelling flights (18 October 2026)
- Travel Daily News, Riyadh airport closure extended as airlines suspend flights (October 2026)
- Aerospace Global News, Airlines cancel flights to Riyadh following attacks on Saudi airports (October 2026)
- Aviation A2Z, Riyadh Air moves its 787 fleet (14 October 2026)
- eTurboNews, Global aviation news roundup (17 October 2026)
- AJOT, Turkish Airlines carried 9 million passengers in September 2026 (October 2026)
- Breakbulk, European airlines face longer Asia routings, citing IBA (25 June 2026)
- Gulf News, Saudi Arabia’s dual-hub strategy and 330 million passenger target
Figures are as reported in the primary sources above. IATA traffic data are provisional and may be revised, and airline schedules are changing frequently. This article is for information purposes and is not investment or travel advice.
Tables and key figures
Passenger traffic by region, August 2026
| Region (total market) | Share of world RPK | RPK change | Capacity (ASK) change | Load factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East | 9.5% | −14.6% | −9.3% | 78.9% (−4.9 pts) |
| North America | 21.8% | −2.2% | −1.0% | 84.6% (−1.0 pts) |
| Europe | 26.7% | +0.7% | +1.4% | 87.5% (−0.6 pts) |
| Asia-Pacific | 34.4% | +1.4% | +1.3% | 85.9% (+0.1 pts) |
| Africa | 2.2% | +4.4% | +7.2% | 77.5% (−2.1 pts) |
| Latin America and Caribbean | 5.4% | +5.3% | +6.3% | 84.0% (−0.8 pts) |
| World | 100% | −0.8% | +0.3% | 85.1% (−0.9 pts) |
Monthly traffic growth, 2026
| Month | Middle East RPK | World RPK | Europe–Asia | Europe–Asia basis reported by IATA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| February | +0.8% | +6.1% | n/a | Conflict begins at end of month |
| March | −58.6% | +2.1% | +29.3% | Europe–Asia traffic |
| April | −46.6% | −3.4% | +15.3% | Direct Europe–Asia traffic |
| May | −28.4% | −2.2% | +15% | European carriers’ direct traffic to Asia |
| June | −13.9% | −1.7% | +11.0% | Europe–Asia corridor |
| July | −10.0% | +0.2% | +12.1% | Europe–Asia corridor |
| August | −14.6% | −0.8% | +12.2% | European carriers’ Europe–Asia traffic |
Saudi airport attacks and airline response
| Date (2026) | Event |
|---|---|
| 18 October | Riyadh King Khalid International reopens; several foreign airlines keep Saudi flights suspended |
| 13 October | Riyadh Air repositions several 787-9s from Riyadh to AlUla, Medina and Jeddah |
| 12 October | Delta postpones the Atlanta–Riyadh launch to March 2027 |
| 10–11 October | Further attacks suspend Riyadh operations; projectile hits Terminal 4; Dammam also reported attacked; Riyadh closed until 17 October |
| 8 October | Strike damages a parked Saudia aircraft; 293 of 747 Riyadh movements (39%) do not operate |
| 6–7 October | Missile and drone attacks hit Riyadh and Abha airports |
| 30 September | EASA issues a new conflict-zone bulletin for part of Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah FIR, valid to 16 November |
Airline profits, fuel and flight times (IATA June outlook; IBA)
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Middle East airlines net profit | $7.2bn (9.4% margin) | −$4.3bn (−6.1% margin) |
| European airlines net profit | $13.0bn (4.5% margin) | $9.6bn (3.1% margin) |
| North American airlines net profit | $12.4bn (3.5% margin) | $9.4bn (2.5% margin) |
| Asia-Pacific airlines net profit | $9.8bn (3.5% margin) | $6.6bn (2.1% margin) |
| Global airline net profit | $45bn (4.2% margin) | $23bn (2.0% margin) |
| Jet fuel average | $90/bbl | $152/bbl |
| Average Europe–Asia flight time (IBA) | 9h 00m before the conflict | 9h 47m in June |
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